The NWS Just Split the Difference on Oklahoma’s Winter Storm Forecast

The official National Weather Service forecast for the coming Oklahoma Winter Storm is out, and it splits the difference between what Sooner State news stations have been peddling all week.

Since the first outlooks hit last Sunday, meteorologists have made some ridiculously bold predictions of up to 15 inches of snow for parts of Oklahoma.

Is that a super far-fetched prediction?

Eh... Yes and no. Big snows like that have happened in the past. The last big winter storm dumped 16 inches in Lawton just a few years ago... but the average "big" snow across the Sooner State is more like 5-6 inches, with a regular average between 1-3, and those are usually here and gone in like 36 hours.

While every meteorologist has gone along with the sensational weather models, probably in hopes of getting shares across Facebook - which equals revenue - the National Weather Service doesn't benefit from all of that noise. They simply aim to put out the most accurate predictions to best prepare America for what's coming.

The official NWS Oklahoma prediction.

Ice is expected first. The vast majority of Oklahoma is expecting at least a glazing of thin ice, the more affected areas up to nearly a quarter inch. That's not detailed as freezing rain, so ice accumulation on the trees and power grid shouldn't be worrisome. This is mostly categorized as sleet and graupel.

Snow accumulations. 5-6 inches for the hardest hit portions of Oklahoma. Some areas may see slightly more. This is the total expected snowfall for the storm. Friday morning through Sunday afternoon.

This graphic details Western OK, Eastern OK isn't much different. More snow North of I-40, more ice to the South across the state East to West.

The temperatures are expected to be extremely cold during this time. We're getting a moist storm system at the same time as deep arctic plunge, so it's going to be a little wild. Winds to 35 MPH on Friday, windchills to -25+ in some areas of the state. Extremely cold overnight lows, and daily highs still below freezing for the duration of the storm.

The timeline of this winter storm.

The first Oklahoma counties to experience Snomageddon 2026 will start seeing winter precipitation around 6 AM on Friday morning, and it will move across the state as the system builds. Mid-to-late afternoon for Central Oklahoma, evening for Eastern Oklahoma.

It's hard to say how the ice and snow will come. While it will mostly be bands, like any other severe weather in the Sooner State, there will be times of blizzard and times of gentle, pretty snowfall. The predictions aren't super-clear on what the wind is going to do on Saturday and into Sunday. It's about 50/50 whether it howls all weekend long, or blows in strong just to mellow out by Saturday.

While ice and snow make the headlines, the real worry is the temperature and windchill. The bottom is falling out of the atmosphere for a few days, and that cold is going to linger. This won't be a typical Oklahoma here-and-gone snowstorm.

While our warm winter thus far will benefit us as the ice and sleet comes down initially, the plunging temps will quickly refreeze everything. Even worse, Oklahoma won't see any melt until Tuesday or Wednesday.

I know a trip to the grocery store is the last thing anyone wants to do the day before a massive winter storm, but you're going to need a week of food essentials. Even though it's officially crock-pot season, you might opt for foods that won't require electricity to prepare, like sandwiches.

On that note, consider it a win that the ice forecast isn't in the realm of breaking power lines, but anything could theoretically happen.

Travel advisories.

This shouldn't be too big of a shock, but you're officially advised not to travel. Full stop.

While you may be tempted to play the timing of this event in your favor, you know how Oklahoma weather is. It may look like you have time to run down the highways and make it home, but how often does life and the weather stick to your own plan?

Still, I get it. We all have lives to lead, there's work to be done, and incomes to earn. If you have to be out on the roads, at least be prepared. In the best-case-scenario, your vehicle will make it to and fro with no issues... but a little precaution never hurt anyone. Here's a list of stuff you should consider packing in the car if you're going to have to run the roads this weekend.

The Oklahoma Standard.

If you've lived here a long time, you get it. If you're relatively new to Oklahoma, it's times like these when you'll want to go out of your way to be greater than yourself. Check on your neighbors. Especially the elderly. Ask them if they need anything before the storm, and check in on them during the storm. Small gestures add up to big impacts.

Stay safe. Stay warm. Stay home.